40 million people with diabetes will be left without insulin by 2030

98 million Indians will suffer from diabetes by 2030, says Study

98 million Indians will suffer from diabetes by 2030, says Study

As people around the globe continue to get fatter, diabetes rates will continue to rise and insulin supplies will be in short supply, a new study warns. Around 33 million people who require insulin presently have no acquisition to the drug.

The report drew data from the International Diabetes Federation and other studies, and looked at the needs of people with type 2 diabetes across 220 countries. Based on that data, the researchers estimate that the number of adult type 2 diabetics will increase from 406 million to 511 million, with more than half of them being located in the US, India, and China. According to a new study performed at Stanford University, 40 million people with type 2 diabetes won't have access to the life-saving hormone by 2030.

Sanjay Basu, assistant professor of medicine at Stanford University and who led the study, said: "Despite the UN's commitment to treat noncommunicable diseases and ensure universal access to drugs for diabetes, across much of the world insulin is scarce and unnecessarily hard for patients to access".

The situation is being made worse due to the fact there are only three major manufacturers of insulin: Novo Nordisk, Sanofi and Lilly. They found that patients who will be diagnosed with type 2 diabetes will increase from 405.6 million in 2018 to 510.8 million in 2030.

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The study also predicts that using a higher glucose target of 8% in the over 75s could halve insulin use and prevent more disability by cutting severe hypoglycaemic events (more common among older adults) by 44%, with only a 20% increase in diabetes-related harms from eye, kidney, and nerve complications (figure 2).

"Despite the UN's commitment to treat non-communicable diseases and ensure universal access to drugs for diabetes, across much of the world insulin is scarce and unnecessarily hard for patients to access". This translates to a 20 per cent rise in demand for the drug, with only 38 million likely to have access to it according to current resources. At the same time, global insulin use is projected to rise from 526 million 1000-unit vials in 2018 to 634 million in 2030.

Sanjay Basu also added that governments should begin effective initiatives to make insulin affordable for patients all across the world. Past research has found that insulin cost nearly tripled between 2002 and 2013, underscoring the affordability issue. Over half of them will be living in just three countries - China, India and the U.S.

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